Friday, 15 April 2016

Why American Airlines is wrong to predict long-term profits for the industry

Full article on

“What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error.”

So wrote Raymond Aron, the French philosopher, whose 1955 book The Opium of the Intellectuals criticized the blind optimism displayed by many of his countrymen about Marxism.

In my chirpier moments I might take issue with so bleak an assertion. But experience quickly restores one’s cynicism: bull markets always overshoot; politicians always disappoint; and the airline industry always crashes to the ground after a period of historic outperformance...